Thailand vs. Malaysia

Thailand has experienced a substantial fertility decline since the 1960s largely due to the nationwide success of its voluntary family planning program.  In just one generation, the total fertility rate (TFR) shrank from 6.5 children per woman in 1960s to below the replacement level of 2.1 in the late 1980s.  Reduced fertility occurred among all segments of the Thai population, despite disparities between urban and rural areas in terms of income, education, and access to public services.  The country's "reproductive revolution" gained momentum in the 1970s as a result of the government's launch of an official population policy to reduce population growth, the introduction of new forms of birth control, and the assistance of foreign non-government organizations.  Contraceptive use rapidly increased as new ways were developed to deliver family planning services to Thailand's then overwhelmingly rural population.  The contraceptive prevalence rate increased from just 14% in 1970 to 58% in 1981 and has remained about 80% since 2000. 

Thailand's receptiveness to family planning reflects the predominant faith, Theravada Buddhism, which emphasizes individualism, personal responsibility, and independent decision-making.  Thai women have more independence and a higher status than women in many other developing countries and are not usually pressured by their husbands or other family members about family planning decisions.  Thailand's relatively egalitarian society also does not have the son preference found in a number of other Asian countries; most Thai ideally want one child of each sex.

Because of its low fertility rate, increasing life expectancy, and growing elderly population, Thailand has become an aging society that will face growing labor shortages.  The proportion of the population under 15 years of age has shrunk dramatically, the proportion of working-age individuals has peaked and is starting to decrease, and the proportion of elderly is growing rapidly.  In the short-term, Thailand will have to improve educational quality to increase the productivity of its workforce and to compete globally in skills-based industries.  An increasing reliance on migrant workers will be necessary to mitigate labor shortfalls.

Thailand is a destination, transit, and source country for migrants. It has 3-4 million migrant workers as of 2017, mainly providing low-skilled labor in the construction, agriculture, manufacturing, services, and fishing and seafood processing sectors.  Migrant workers from other Southeast Asian countries with lower wages - primarily Burma and, to a lesser extent, Laos and Cambodia - have been coming to Thailand for decades to work in labor-intensive industries.  Many are undocumented and are vulnerable to human trafficking for forced labor, especially in the fisheries industry, or sexual exploitation.  A July 2017 migrant worker law stiffening fines on undocumented workers and their employers, prompted tens of thousands of migrants to go home.  Fearing a labor shortage, the Thai Government has postponed implementation of the law until January 2018 and is rapidly registering workers.  Thailand has also hosted ethnic minority refugees from Burma for more than 30 years; as of 2016, approximately 105,000 mainly Karen refugees from Burma were living in nine camps along the Thailand-Burma border.

Thailand has a significant amount of internal migration, most often from rural areas to urban centers, where there are more job opportunities.  Low- and semi-skilled Thais also go abroad to work, mainly in Asia and a smaller number in the Middle East and Africa, primarily to more economically developed countries where they can earn higher wages.

Malaysia's multi-ethnic population consists of the bumiputera - Malays and other indigenous peoples - (62%), ethnic Chinese (21%), ethnic Indians (6%), and foreigners (10%).  The majority of Malaysia's ethnic Chinese and Indians trace their roots to the British colonialists' recruitment of hundreds of thousands of Chinese and Indians as mine and plantation workers between the early-19^th century and the 1930s.  Most Malays have maintained their rural lifestyle, while the entrepreneurial Chinese have achieved greater wealth and economic dominance.  In order to eradicate Malay poverty, the Malaysian Government in 1971 adopted policies that gave preference to the bumiputera in public university admissions, government jobs and contracts, and property ownership.  Affirmative action continues to benefit well-off urban bumiputera but has done little to alleviate poverty for their more numerous rural counterparts.  The policies have pushed ethnic Chinese and Indians to study at private or foreign universities (many do not return) and have created and sustained one of the world's largest civil services, which is 85-90% Malay. 

The country's age structure has changed significantly since the 1960s, as fertility and mortality rates have declined.  Malaysia's total fertility rate (TFR) has dropped from 5 children per woman in 1970, to 3 in 1998, to 2.1 in 2015 as a result of increased educational attainment and labor participation among women, later marriages, increased use of contraception, and changes in family size preference related to urbanization.  The TFR is higher among Malays, rural residents (who are mainly Malay), the poor, and the less-educated.  Despite the reduced fertility rate, Malaysia's population will continue to grow, albeit at a decreasing rate, for the next few decades because of its large number of reproductive-age women.  The youth population has been shrinking, and the working-age population (15-64 year olds) has been growing steadily.  Malaysia's labor market has successfully absorbed the increasing number of job seekers, leading to sustained economic growth.  However, the favorable age structure is changing, and around 2020, Malaysia will start to become a rapidly aging society.  As the population ages, Malaysia will need to better educate and train its labor force, raise productivity, and continue to increase the number of women workers in order to further develop its economy.

More than 1.8 million Malaysians lived abroad as of 2015, including anywhere from 350,000 to 785,000 workers, more than half of whom have an advanced level of education.  The vast majority of emigrants are ethnic Chinese, seeking better educational and job opportunities abroad because of institutionalized ethnic discrimination favoring the Malays.  The primary destination country is nearby Singapore, followed by Bangladesh and Australia.  Hundreds of thousands of Malaysians also commute across the causeway to Singapore daily for work.

Brain drain is an impediment to Malaysia's goal of becoming a high-income country.  The situation is compounded by a migrant inflow that is composed almost entirely of low-skilled laborers who work mainly in manufacturing, agriculture, and construction.  Officially, Malaysia had about 1.8 million legal foreign workers as of mid-year 2017 - largely from Indonesia, Nepal, the Philippines, and Bangladesh - but as many as 3 to 4 million are estimated to be in the country illegally.  Immigrants outnumber ethnic Indians and could supplant the ethnic Chinese as Malaysia's second largest population group around 2035.